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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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An Agent-Based Model for Flood Resilience Engineering

Flood resilience requires effective flood incident management (FIM) across complex, interacting human and technological systems. A dynamic agent-based model has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy and engineering decision-making to enhance flood resilience. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. A multiagent simulation has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. The model is applied to Towyn, a town in North Wales (U.K.) and to Kibera, Kenya - one of the largest informal settlements in the world. In contrast to the UK where significant volumes of high resolution geospatial data are readily available, the Kibera application relied upon open datasets, that were augmented by social survey data collected by local development agencies. A number of different evacuation, engineering and human response strategies are tested. Analysis of thousands of simulations, to capture key uncertainties, that in both locations the design and implementation of engineering and planning strategies must address human response if it is to enhance flood resilience.

Richard Dawson
Newcastle University
United Kingdom

Olivia Butters
Newcastle University
United Kingdom

Miao Wang
UCL
United Kingdom

 

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