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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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Assessment of Energy Supply Resilience in Japanese Capital Region with Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model

In Japan, there is growing concern for the expected striking of catastrophic capital-epicentered earthquake with probability around 70% within 30 years. By the large-scale earthquake, great risk of energy infrastructure disruptions and serious energy supply shortage in the capital region is strongly recognized, because the energy infrastructures in Japan are heavily concentrated in the capital region such as Tokyo bay area. Against those backgrounds, this research analyzes the optimal operation and deployment of the energy infrastructures by developing an energy system model in a stochastic dynamic programming approach. By considering the infrastructural damages with a specific probability estimated by the government, the stochastic dynamic programming model yields the optimal logistic and deployment strategy of the energy infrastructures. The calculated results suggest that oil-fired back-up power generator, inter-regional power exchange and electricity curtailment are effective measures to compensate the supply shortage in electricity sector and procurement of heavy oil from outside capital region and reinforcement of tank truck and oil terminal have higher economic value in petroleum sector. Those results imply the significance of resource diversification and stockpile reinforcement against the expected earthquake. The future work mainly consists in the extension of the model to cover the nation-wide energy infrastructures.

Ryoichi Komiyama
The University of Tokyo


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