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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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Socio-Technical Energy Demand Simulation within A Systems-Of-Systems Modelling Approach

Energy demand is affected by manifold socio-technical and environmental factors, which are expected to undergo considerable future change (IEA 2015). Manifold energy services need to be provided across different infrastructure systems (e.g. ICT, water, transport) and sectors (residential, service, industry). Whereas diverse energy demand modelling approaches have been developed, the interlinkages between different infrastructure systems have been neglected and few simulations are high in temporal and spatial scale. Furthermore, few attempts operationalise non-technical factors in models of energy demand (Anable 2012). Within Multi-Scale Infrastructure Systems Analytics (MISTRAL) (2017) future energy demand is simulated for the United Kingdom within a system-of-systems modelling approach with a particular focus on high temporal and spatial scale. High spatial and temporal energy demand modelling forms the basis for modelling energy demand response and storage and thus simulating future peak demand (Baruah et al 2014). The goal of the presented modelling approach is the parametrisation of innovative technologies and their diffusion across space and time, focusing on socio-technical trends and testing the effect of alternative infrastructure futures on energy demand for different energy vectors (e.g. hydrogen, gas, electricity). This is achieved with help of a simulation approach looking at different socio-technical scenarios (cf. Hall 2016). Findings show how long-term socio-technical uncertainty affects energy consumption.

Anable, J., Brand, C., Tran, M., & Eyre, N. (2012). Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach. Energy Policy, 41, 125–138.

Baruah, P., Eyre, N., Qadrdan, M., Chaudry, M., Blainey, S., Hall, J. W., … Tran, M. (2014). Energy system impacts from heat and transport electrification. Proceedings of the ICE - Energy, 167(3), 139–151.

Hall, J. W., Tran, M., Hickford, A. J., & Nicholls, R. J. (2016). The future of national infrastructure : a system-of-systems approach. (J. W. Hall, M. Tran, A. J. Hickford, & R. J. Nicholls, Eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

IEA (2015). Making the energy sector more resilient to climate change. COP21, 30. Nov-11. Dec, 2015, Paris, France.

MISTRAL (2017): Multi-Scale Infrastructure Systems Analytics. http://www.itrc.org.uk/.

Sven Eggimann
University of Oxford
United Kingdom

Nick Eyre
University of Oxford
United Kingdom

 

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