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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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Resilience Quantification of Electricity Supply Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Secure and reliable electricity supply forms the backbone of modern societies, and the dependence on electricity is only increasing. In the past years, several events showed the negative impacts electricity supply disruptions can have in our complex and interconnected society, often resulting in major economic losses.

In this study, the resilience of providing a secure electricity supply is analyzed on national levels. Twenty-six countries in Europe, Asia and North America were chosen, compared, and ranked according to their electricity generation mixes, economic development, and geographical location. A preliminary indicator set for resilience quantification was established, based on an extensive literature survey. Each indicator was then assessed using four criteria, namely relevance, credibility of data, accessibility of data, and applicability and comparability. Furthermore, a statistical analysis was performed to identify potential correlations among indicators and to validate the final indicator set.

Previously published country comparisons primarily focused on sustainability or energy security aspects but not resilience, and often applied rather straightforward composite scores or Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDA) based ranking. In contrast this study uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that among other advantages can uncover relationships that remain hidden for other methodologies and also derives an efficiency frontier for the analyzed countries. Preliminary results show that only a limited number of the surveyed countries considered as efficient serve as benchmarks for most of the other countries. Ways to vary the efficiency frontier are discussed next, to point out how countries can improve their efficiency score in order to minimize their distance to the efficiency frontier, and thus ultimately increase the resilience of their electricity supply.

The findings of the present study are expected to support decision-makers in shaping efficient new energy policies and regulations that will improve the resilience of their electricity supply. In fact, a target efficient country is identified for each inefficient country to follow in this resilience-increasing process.

Patrick Gasser
Singapore-ETH Centre

Marco Cinelli
Singapore-ETH Centre

Miłosz Kadziński
Poznań University of Technology

Peter Burgherr
Paul Scherrer Institute

Božidar Stojadinović
ETH Zurich


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