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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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Simulation of Disaster Recovery Process of Tokyo 23 Wards Considering Multiple Interdependency Behind Urban Socio-technical Systems

An urban sociotechnical system is a large and complex system that consists of lifeline infrastructure as well as various human activities such as industrial, service, and daily life activities. Therefore, to build a more resilient urban sociotechnical system, it is necessary to understand the mechanism and characteristics of such complex systems, especially how lifeline infrastructures and human systems are interdependent and how the multiple interdependency affects the resilience of the urban city. First, this paper introduces a modelling framework for urban sociotechnical systems with such multiple interdependencies. Second, this paper describes how a real urban city is modeled and implemented based on the framework using open data for 23 Tokyo wards, including the network topology of lifelines, location of facilities, and population distributions. Finally, the results of the simulation of the recovery process from disaster damage using the model of 23 Tokyo wards as well as the result of the sensitivity analysis of the recovery to various model parameters for the model verification are presented. The results of the sensitivity analysis to the 4Rs of disaster resilience are almost consistent with the expectation from the R4 framework, which suggests that the proposed model was properly implemented. From the other viewpoint, this result also suggests that the empirical-based framework of R4 was valid. In the simulation of the recovery process using the model of 23 Tokyo wards, we observed that the simulation could run properly even under large-scale settings. We plan to conduct simulations under various conditions to explore how to build the resilience of urban sociotechnical systems.

Taro Kanno
Dept. Systems Innovation, School of Eng., The University of Tokyo
Japan

Yuichi Yoshida
Dept. Systems Innovation, School of Eng., The University of Tokyo
Japan

Shungo Koike
Dept. Systems Innovation, School of Eng., The University of Tokyo
Japan

Kazuo Furuta
Resilience Engineering Research Center, School of Eng., The University of Tokyo
Japan

 

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