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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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Resilience-Based Design of Critical Facilities via the Resilience-Compositional Demand/Supply Framework Re-CoDeS

In this study, we investigate the use of Re-CoDeS (Resilience-Compositional Demand/Supply framework) in the context of the resilience-based design of critical facilities. The Re-CoDeS framework generalizes the concept of resilience by accounting for both the evolution of a service supply of a civil infrastructure system and the evolution of the community demand for such service in the aftermath of a hazardous event. A resilience-based design aims to minimize the lack of resilience through the selection of an optimal set of actions. Typically, this set comprises actions for vulnerability reduction, recovery time reduction, or a combination of both. Since every selected action has a cost, we perform the lack of resilience minimization introducing a probabilistic resilience cost-benefit analysis. In specific, we present a probabilistic resilience cost-benefit analysis of a hospital system. The analysis follows the Re-CoDeS framework by considering both the demand for a service (injured persons asking for medication) and the service supply (emergency rooms available). We select earthquakes as perils of interest; therefore, we restrict our analysis to the class of seismic-resilience design. Classical fragility analysis describes the vulnerability of both the hospital system and the built environment. A Poisson process—which depends on both hazard level and vulnerability of the built environment—describes the demand for medical services. The total number of emergency rooms—which depends on both the vulnerability of the hospital system—and the medication-service time—which depends on the severity of injuries—describe the service supply. The interaction between the demand and supply leads to a conditional Markov chain, which depends on the post-hazard damage scenarios. The proposed probabilistic resilience cost-benefit analysis determines the optimal trade-off between the minimization of the loss of resilience and the cost of the mitigation strategies.

Marco Broccardo
Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, ETH Zürich
Switzerland

Max Didier
Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, ETH Zürich
Switzerland

Simona Esposito
Swiss Re
Switzerland

Bozidar Stojadinovic
Institut für Baustatik und Konstruktion, ETH Zürich
Switzerland

 

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