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Infrastructure Resilience Conference 2018

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Quantification of Disruption and Recovery Processes for the European Natural Gas Network

Today’s societies and economies heavily depend on reliable supply of energy. Natural catastrophes, technological failures or intentional attacks could cause energy supply disruptions. Such disruptions are often unforeseen leading to physical infrastructure damage, human health impacts, environmental and socio-economic effects. This calls for resilience assessment, including the assessment of disruption and recovery processes. In this study, a spatial model of the European natural gas network is analyzed. The disruption processes are subdivided into frequency, intensity and exposure for the network under investigation. The analyzed disruption events include on a European level seismic hazards and technological failures and on a regional level flood hazards. The hazards under investigation are often considered to be the most relevant risks for natural gas networks. In a nutshell, the probabilities of failure of certain infrastructure components are estimated with the likelihood of occurrence of an event (frequency), the exposure (geospatial location, intensity) and the corresponding fragility/vulnerability functions. The consequence of a possible disruption is estimated due to potential service losses of the network. Following the disruption processes, different recovery models have been simulated for the network of interest. Among others, intuitive recovery strategies such as, for example, ‘greedy’ and ‘opportunistic’ strategies have been tested and compared. Results show that on European level the highest risk of disruption for the network are high capacity pipelines bringing natural gas from either South (North Africa), East (Russia, Iran) or from natural gas fields in the North (North Sea/Norwegian Sea) to Western Europe. Regarding the recovery processes on regional level, preliminary results indicate that the level of service prior to disruption can be recovered without the full network restoration. Furthermore, it appears that connectivity rather than pipeline flow capacity is the main driver for fulfilling service satisfaction. Further analysis, for example detailed damage analysis based on actual data, will be conducted to provide profound evaluation on possible risk mitigation strategies as well as recovery supporting strategies and the trade-offs between those pre- and post-event strategies.

Peter Lustenberger
Singapor-ETH Centre - Future Resilient Systems
Singapore

Miltos Kyriakidis
ETH Zürich, Future Resilient Systems, Singapore - ETH Centre Singapore
Singapore

Vinh Dang
Paul Scherrer Institute
Switzerland

Peter Burgherr
Paul Scherrer Institute
Switzerland

Bozidar Stojadinovic
ETH Zurich
Switzerland

 

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